NHL: Stanley Cup Finals Thoughts

At long last, the 2014 Stanley Cup Finals are set, and Count Gary Bettman is creaming his pants at having biglargehuge TV markets Los Angeles and New York as the final two teams.

Seeing the Kings in the finals is no real surprise, but the Rangers? I bet you would have cashed in big if you bet on them to make the finals back in September.

First, a look back at the semi-finals. I got both predictions wrong, so now I'm 9 for 14 in the playoffs. Like the Canucks, I choke in the later rounds :(

Rangers v. Canadiens

I flipped a coin, and ended up picking the Canadiens in 7. It's the coin's fault, obviously.

A few things did the Habs in, and led to the Rangers taking the series in 6 games.

1. Goaltending: Carey Price went down in the first game to an injury that ended his playoffs. Dustin Tokarski, the third-string goaltender, was given the reins after that. While Tokarski did well for himself, he didn't steal games like Carey Price was able to. Lundqvist has been, by far, the best goalie in these playoffs. 


2. Coaching: I think that Michel Therrien is not a very good coach, and the advanced stats back that up. In game six, the Canadiens were constantly on the defensive, and the Rangers looked like the desperate team. Alain Vigneault knows how to better use his players, and his team looked fresh and confident.


3. Thomas Vanek: What a disappointment as Vanek completely disappeared in this series, with just 2 assists and a -4 in 6 games. Instead of owning up to his indifferent play, Vanek blamed his new linemates for a 'lack of chemistry', and his coach for his own lack of production. Vanek was good the first two rounds, but then decided, for whatever reason, that he was done playing hard. Not the kind of guy I want on my team, when the chips are down.

Image borrowed from dennis-kane.com, a fine Habs blog.

Kings v. Blackhawks

While I picked the Hawks to win this series in 7 games, it was pretty much another coin-flip scenario. I figured the Hawks would be a bit fresher and a bit deeper.

In the end, it came down to a bad bounce in Game 7's overtime to give the Kings their ticket to the Cup Finals. It was a great series, and, apologies to the Rangers, truly showcased the two best teams in the league.

1. Justin Williams is clutch. Just look at his production in playoff Game 7s. He is the best Game 7 playoff scorer, ever! Yes, even better than Gretzky and Glenn Anderson. If this was Final Fantasy 7, Williams would be doing 7,777 damage each hit!

• 7 games
• 7 goals
• 7 assists
• 7 wins

2. Jonathan Quick is actually the weak link in the Kings armour. With a 90.6 SV% in these playoffs, Quick ranks well below average. Luckily for him, Corey Crawford was not that great for the Hawks, either.

3. Duncan Keith does not get enough press for being one of the dirtiest players in the league. He got away with concussing Daniel Sedin a few years ago,  got caught slashing Jeff Carter on the head, and even got called out by Don Cherry for his slashiness. If Keith weren't a 'star' player, you can bet he'd be punished a lot more severely. I suppose this makes Keith a modern-day Chris Pronger.

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LOS ANGELES KINGS v. NEW YORK RANGERS

The Los Angeles Kings have to be the "Team of Destiny". Not only did they overcome a 3-0 series deficit versus the Sharks in the first round, but they've now won three straight Game 7s to get to the finals. Things just seem to be going their way.

Most pundits expect the Kings to walk away with the Stanley Cup, and I am not going to disagree. The Kings have been one of the strongest teams for the past few years, better overall depth, and I think their larger forwards will give the Rangers problems. The Canadiens are a small team, and the Rangers had a fairly easy time containing the Montreal attack.

That said, the Rangers have a decent shot at pulling the upset, for a few reasons.

• Goaltending: Henrik Lundqvist has been stealing games left and right, and compare his 92.8 SV% to Quick's 90.6%. Quick has been overrated for awhile now, while King Henrik was been, somewhat quietly, one of the elite goaltenders for some time.

Lundqvist is also so damn handsome. It's not fair!

• Fatigue: Western Conference teams have far more travel, and the New York teams have always had some of the easiest travel schedules in the league. While the Kings have had the nice luxury of playing two California teams during these playoffs, the season-long travel schedule can really be a factor for LA.


• Fatigue, again: The LA Kings have had three straight brutal 7-game series, and have made things tough on themselves. The Rangers, on the other hand, came through the Canadiens series relatively unscathed, apart from Derek Stepan's jaw. The Rangers will be better rested before the series starts, and this might come into play down the road. Remember, Western Conference hockey has tended to be faster-paced and more physical than Eastern Conference hockey. Just watch a regular season game and notice the difference. 

Prediction: LA Kings in six.

NHL: First Round Playoff Predictions - Leastern Conference

Yeah, I haven't been inspired to blog here much in the past few months, but I figure the start of the NHL Playoffs is as good as any to write something.

With the Vancouver Canucks having the collapse of the century (no hyperbole here!), I'm more of an outsider observer of the playoffs. Sure, my other favourite team, the St. Louis Blues, is in the playoffs... but we know the Blues have a history of playoff failure just like the Canucks do.

First, I'll start with the teams on the other side of the continent.

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Want more proof that the Western Conference is Bestern Conference?

1. Two of the playoff teams in the East were in the West last season. Ha!

2. Western Conference had six 100-point teams vs. four in the East.

3. Six of the West teams have a +30 or better goal differential. In the East? Just two.


On to the predictions. I'm using their spot in the overall standings, vs. the new weird format the NHL uses...

(L)EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 Boston vs. #8 Detroit

Mike Babcock deserves some Jack Adams votes for the way he's handled the battered Red Wings this season. Despite playing with half of an AHL team, the Wings made the playoffs with a second-half push.

Goaltending: Rask is one of the very best, while Howard is merely average.

Defense: Zdeno Chara anchors one of the better two-way defense corps in the league. Detroit just doesn't have the D corps it used to when Mr. Perfect (Lidstrom) was around.

Forwards: Detroit has some real quality, and Gustav Nyquist is quite the story, but their depth just doesn't match up to Boston's. The Bruins have depth, size, and a playoff-tested group of grunts.

What are you going to do, brother, when Milan Lucic runs wild over you?

Prediction: Bruins in 5.

#3 Tampa vs. #4 Montreal

Goaltending: Carey Price finished 3rd in Save Percentage, while the Bolts #1, Ben Bishop, suffered a late-season injury. The Habs won many games thanks to Carey Price, who made up for Michel Therrien's terrible coaching.

Defense: Douglas Murray is, probably, the very worst defenseman in the NHL. On the flip side, PK Subban and Andrei Markov are two of the most talented. As a group, the Habs give up a lot of shots, and the Bolts' D is far steadier. Hedman has developed, quietly, into one of the league's better two-way defenseman, while Sami Salo and Eric Brewer bring a wealth of experience.

Forwards: The Bolts got some surprising performances from youngsters Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson. Inexperience, plus the loss of Marty St-Louis (due to his whiny trade demand) could be their downfall. The Habs have a very small forward corps, but they do have fairly solid depth. Both teams seem quite similar, in this regard.

Prediction: Habs in 7. I hope the Lightning win, but the Bolts seems to have run into some bad luck.

If the Bolts do lose, at least Ryan Malone can throw a great party!

#2 Pittsburgh vs. #7 Columbus

The BJs make the playoffs for the second time in franchise history, thanks to a move to the Leastern Conference, and a stifling put-your-opponent-to-sleep strategy.

Goaltending: BOBROVSKY!!! Given Fleury's penchant for meltdowns, this is easily an advantage for the Dinner Jackets.

Defense: Kris Letang is back after suffering a stroke, and we hope we don't see another scary incident. The Pens' D is quite mobile and offensively talented, while the Dinner Jackets play two of the most defensively risky players in the game on the back end (Johnson and Wisniewski).

Forwards: The Jackets do have a pretty decent forward corps, albeit without the star power of the Penguins. At the very least, they can grind out goals when needed. I'll take Crosby and Malkin over whoever the hell plays for Columbus.

Prediction: Penguins in 5. 

#5 NY Rangers vs. #6 Philadelphia

Ugh, two teams I care little for. I am happy Alain Vigneault is doing well in New York, though.
The Flyers best hope is to play their usual thug brand of hockey, and hope the refs and NHL head office let them get away with it.

Goaltending: Henrik Lundqvist is not the elite goalie he used to be, but he's still better than Steve Mason.

Defense: The Rangers are the 2nd best defensive team in the East, and the Flyers D core is shallow and full of holes.

Forwards: The advantage for the Flyers here is that they have star power that can actually score. The Rangers have some big names, but both Rick Nash and Brad Richards' best days are far behind them.

Prediction: Rangers in 7 nasty games. 

Quack! The Canucks as Lame Ducks!

I haven’t blogged here in over a month. I promised myself I wouldn’t ever force myself to write things, so I waited until something bugged me enough to write.

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This NHL season has been strange for me, as a fan. While I pulled back my emotional attachment in the Vancouver Canucks after the 2011 Stanley Cup Finals, I still follow the team. I do want them to win, and I still enjoy watching hockey.

I couldn’t quite put my finger on it, but I haven’t quite felt this way about the local NHL team before. It's a mixture of resignation and acceptance, with only a little hint of optimism.

Then, it dawned on me. The Canucks are a lame-duck franchise.

What does this mean?

“A lame duck, in the context of a game, is a player who remains in the game but has no chance of winning. It must be literally impossible— not merely highly improbable — for a player to win for it to constitute a lame-duck scenario”

The Vancouver Canucks are a good team, and have some very talented players, but are obviously a far step down from the elite teams in the NHL. The Hawks, Bruins, Penguins, and Kings are a clear step above, and it's not close.

Let's face facts ... the Canucks have no *real* chance of winning the game. Lame-duck is often used for non-playoff teams playing out the string, but I think it fits in well with the current Vancouver Canucks. 

Most of the core players on the Canucks are over 30, on the decline, and are signed to very expensive contracts. The Canucks have little Salary Cap room to add more talent, and will only continue to get worse as time goes on. Basically, the Canucks are on a slow road to mediocrity.

What makes this so weird for me is that I’ve never experienced this in my lifetime as a Canucks fan.

Look at this chart. LOOK AT IT!

This shows the Canucks’ winning percentage for each season over the past 25 years. For most of the 80s, the Canucks were a pretty poor team. When your team sucks, expectations are low, and it’s easy not to get too invested. It was a minor miracle when the Canucks did make the playoffs, including the miracle run to the Finals in 1982.

Then, we fast forward to the early 90s and the Pavel Bure/Trevor Linden years. The Canucks had a nice spike, resulting in a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals in 1994 and some fun and exciting teams to watch. Although the Canucks team that made the Finals was barely over .500, the talent was certainly there.

Not soon after, the NHL lost half a season to a strike, and the Canucks had a really sudden downtown. The fall into the Mike Keenan/Mark Messier abyss years was quite abrupt, and the Canucks quickly became a laughing stock.

After Mike Keenan thorough destroyed the Canucks, Brian Burke and Marc Crawford came in and cleaned everything up. The Canucks drafted the Sedins, Naslund and Bertuzzi developed nicely, and the Canucks started trending upward at a fairly consistent pace. For a good decade, the Canucks were one of the league’s better teams.

This peaked in 2011, when the Canucks finished 1st overall and were one win away from winning it all. Even when Naslund and Bertuzzi were finished, the Sedins simply took over and flourished. The Canucks also robbed the Panthers of Roberto Luongo, while Ryan Kesler became one of the league’s best 2-way forwards. It was a nice long run of #WINNING.

Sadly, there is no third wind for the Canucks in the upcoming years. There are no good young players that will take over for the Sedins, as the prospect pool is pretty bare. Our current core group of guys will continue to slowly degrade in quality, as we've seen with the Sedins. Unlike the Keenan error, there isn’t likely to be a sudden plunge into Oilers territory.

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So, watching the Canucks struggle to remain in the top tier has been a strange experience. You know the Canucks can’t possibly win it all, yet they aren’t a terrible team. Any team that makes the playoffs has a shot, as the 1982 Canucks would tell you.

I don’t quite know how to feel, since this isn’t something Canucks fans have really had to deal with in the past. I almost wish Gillis would realize this and start looking to the future.

The Canucks, instead, will try to hang on and remain competitive, all the while watching the competition around them pull ahead and leave the Canucks in the dust. *sigh*

Canadian Hockey Television Hit by a Nuclear Bomb

Although this news has flown under the radar more than I expected, the news that Rogers Communications has been given a monopoly over NHL programming in Canada is going to have a huge impact on the game in our country. Rogers is paying $5.2 BILLION for this 12-year contract. Big bucks!

If you want to know the nitty gritty details about how this will affect the various stakeholders, William Wolfe-Wylie has put together a pretty good run down over at Canada.com.



For the Cliff Notes version, here is what is going to happen.

• TSN will have *NO* rights to any NHL games. Remember, TSN is the prime sports network in Canada, and has always been #1. This will change. 


• The CBC, the original broadcaster, will have no rights to NHL games. A special agreement between CBC and Rogers will allow Hockey Night in Canada to run for four more years, but after that? *poof*?


• The CBC will get NO advertising revenue during that time, simply being paid to cover its costs. Given that hockey ad revenue is about 50% of the CBC's total revenue, Stephen Harper must be cackling with glee.

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Who wins when monopolies exist? Hint: IT IS NEVER THE CONSUMER!

The media in this country is already consolidated amongst a very few parties, and Bell (TSN) and Rogers (Sportsnet) have a disproportionate share of the media pie. This deal just consolidates things even further, leaving consumers with less quality and choice.

Even as I watch less and less hockey than I used to, this deal still pisses me off. Here is why this deal is not good for the consumer.

1. Hockey Night in Canada is dying. Yes, it'll have four more years, but Rogers will exercise full editorial control. HNIC has always been a high-quality broadcast, and CBC gives hockey a lot more respect than Sportsnet ever has.


2. This may also help kill the CBC, which the current Canadian government would just love to happen. People will be laid off, and other programming will suffer. Hockey ad revenue helped the CBC produce other shows.


3. More expensive for us? TSN is purely a national broadcaster, while Sportsnet does break up some of its programming into regional networks. If you want to see more games, you may have to pay for the other Sportsnet region channels. Ugh.


4. On-Air Talent: Sportsnet's 'talent' is piss poor compared to TSN and CBC. Nick Kypreos is a buffoon, and Doug MacLean should have stuck to coaching. TSN has, by far, the best panel, and CBC is a close second, apart from Cherry. We might expect Sportsnet to hire some of TSN's talent, however.


5. Less variety of broadcasts. It's great to see different productions and different viewpoints. With everything controlled by one broadcaster, you lose that. The lack of competition may also lead Sportsnet to stagnate with their on-air product, as they don't need to worry about what TSN is doing.


6. Don Cherry: Yes, Rogers will likely pay him millions to pollute your eyeballs with his ugly suits and his Bobby Orr ass-kissing. Ugh.

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The NHL is making an amazing amount of money off of this deal, and Rogers does have the infrastructure to bringing content to people that doesn't involve the TV. This deal shows, at least, that the NHL is still a player in the business world.

Still, shame on the NHL for choosing just one provider for the Canadian airwaves. Less choice is never good for the consumer, and this smacks purely of Bettman's one-dimensional thinking.

Nike's Hockey Jersey Design Fails

I've never been overly fond of Nike's presence in the hockey marketplace, given the fact that the company's specialties are marketing, basketball, and using slave labour to sell shoes at a 100000% markup.

That said, I've never really felt compelled to speak up until seeing the recent jersey designs for the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi.

K.I.S.S. - Keep it simple, stupid!

That's the motto most any designer should follow, especially when it comes to sports uniforms.

The best uniforms in sports? The Yankees, Canadiens, Dodgers, Red Wings... all very simple, elegant designs that use striking colours and a clean look to stand out. They stand the test of time for a reason.

Now, let's look at the awful dreck that Nike has seen fit to produce for these upcoming Olympics.

CZECH REPUBLIC

It's a very American thing to wear American-flag suits, pants, shirts, etc... Given the garish design of the American flag, it's a real eyesore to see something like this.

So, Nike decided that the Czechs should basically wear the frickin flag as their hockey sweaters.

The design on the left isn't as bad, even if it does remind me of the Montreal Canadiens.
The one on the right? Yes, they basically took a flag and sewed a crest and logo on it.

I can also imagine the numbering on the back of that second jersey will look awkward.


RUSSIA

The one on the left looks just fine, but what the hell is with the pile of garbage on the right? Are we going for a cycling team look?

Did Nike not learn from the disasters that were the LA "Burger King" jerseys? Remember the Anaheim cartoon jerseys? Yeah, this is pretty much in that realm of barfiness.


USA! USA! USA!

The least offensive of the four goes to the USA, although you can tell that Dustin Brown is not too thrilled about them.

Yes, the top part of those shirts has FAKE laces. FAKE LACES!! On top of that, you have a bunch of stars.

Does Nike hire teenage girls to design these things? Why not add some sparkles and glitter?

If you simply removed the extra Ed Hardy crap on top, you'd have a uniform that is actually quite good. 


CANADA

These were finally made official, and they might be the absolute worst uniforms Team Canada has ever had to wear.

1. As random commenters have pointed out, these look like the T-Shirts you'd get for free in a 24-pack of Molson Canadian.

You know those really bad replica jerseys you can buy on Ebay for five bucks? I'd take those things over what Nike has come up with.

2. Why does Team Canada need a THIRD jersey for a tournament where they are playing 8-12 games? No other country seems to need a third jersey. I realize this is about money, but shouldn't the IOC or IIHF step in and say "Two is the maximum!"

3. The THIRD version has a weird red armband on the right side (hidden in the one above), and many people have noticed that it looks like an old Nazi armband. Whose clever idea was it to sneak that on there?

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Whoever picked Nike to design these abominations needs to never use their services again. If I were a player on one of these teams, you can bet I'd speak out and say "I'm proud to be on Team X, but not proud to wear these uniforms."

NHL Predictions for 2013-14

After the heartbreak of the Canucks losing the Stanley Cup Finals three years ago, I've really cut back on the amount of hockey I watch, and the attachment I have to the game.

Of course, I still watch some games and still enjoy hockey. While I don't write about the game like I used to, I figure I might as well throw out my predictions for the upcoming season.

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The new conference and division alignments have broken up a few old rivalries, and changed the complexion of the NHL.

For the past few season, our hometown Canucks preyed upon a very weak division. Last season, especially, the Canucks had a good record simply by beating up on the Crapalanche, fLames, and Coilers. This season, the Canucks will have it tougher now that they have to play San Jose, Los Angeles, and Anaheim more often.

Here are my predictions for the final standings, with the bolded teams to make the playoffs.

ATLANTIC - Strong on top, very weak on the bottom

Boston - Still the cream of the crop
Montreal - A good young team on the upswing
Ottawa - Losing Alfredsson will hurt, but they have one of the league's best coaches
Detroit - The core gets older, but they are still a competitive club.
Toronto - Most of the 'smart' fans realize the Leafs fluked out last season, as they were out-shot and out-possessed quite often. They don't quite suck, but I can see them falling back to Earth.
Tampa Bay - Stamkos and St. Louis will score a ton of goals, and then the rest of the team will let in a ton more.
Florida - Tim Thomas will help the goaltending situation, but this club is still the Panthers...
Buffalo - The bottom has fallen out

METROPOLITAN DIVISION - Toughest division, overall.

Pittsburgh - Losing Vokoun hurts, but this team outscores everybody else
Washington - Need to shore up their D if they are ever want to win it all
Rangers - Vigneault is a good coach, he just got stale here in Vancouver
Islanders - Will be a tough battle for them, but I have a soft spot for them
Philadelphia - Their goaltending reeks and the defense is a bit shaky
Jersey - I should know better than to bet against them, but I think this is the year they will fail
Columbus - Bobrovsky was the sole reason they had a shot at the playoffs. The Dinner Jackets have no chance with such a thin roster.
Carolina - Never seem to be the sum of their parts, and their defense is incredibly poor

CENTRAL - Weakest division of them all
 

Chicago - Unlike the previous cup win, this club's core is still around the season after
St. Louis - So much promise, so much heartbreak :(
Minnesota - Yeo is a terrible coach, but they have a lot of good young talent
Winnipeg - Some talent exists, but lazy blob Pavelec has been a huge disappointment
Colorado - We see just how valuable Craig Anderson was to this club, which has failed to really develop the past few seasons
Nashville - They can only keep losing so much talent before it catches up with them
Dallas - What happens when you refuse to rebuild? You get the American version of the Calgary Flames

PACIFIC: This division will be tight at the top
 
Los Angeles - Still cup favourites after a hiccup last season.
San Jose - They might have an old team, but they are still competitive
Anaheim - Last season was flukey, but this is a solid team
Vancouver - Meh...
Phoenix - Tippett is a magician with this club, and they are always the wild card
Edmonton - Lots of young offensive stars, but the D is terrible
Calgary - They'll fight with Carolina and Buffalo for the #1 overall pick

Slegr is Back (For good, this time!)

Readers of my old hockey blog know I had a weird man-crush on defenseman (and former Canuck) Jiri Slegr.(Here is my old tribute)

Slegr was an offensively talented defensemen that never quite got his due, yet remains one of the few players to have won gold at the Winter Olympics and World Champions, as well as a Stanley Cup.

In 2010, Slegr decided his playing days were behind him, and went into the 'wonderful' world of politics. He did play a few relegation games during his time in parliament, but never lost the itch to play.

With his term up, Slegr was sick of the corruption he dealt with, and decided to go back to 'The clean world of athletes'.

So, at 42 years of age, Slegr is back on the ice as a member of Litvinov: 
You can bet I'm pretty stoked, considering most of my old favourites are either retired or dead :(

It's Litvinov's 55th straight year in the top Czech hockey league, and it might as well represent the team's average age. With Martin Rucinsky back for another year, the Litvinov bench is going to need oxygen tanks. Slegr's back is, as he admits, pretty creaky and often sore. I wonder how many games he'll actually be able to play.


For my friend Camille, here are a couple of memories of Slegr in his younger years!